100000 Baccarat Shoes

  

The table limits often vary between $50 and $100,000 or more. Have you ever wondered why there is no 4 or 13 on a baccarat table? The full-size Baccarat table is oval and it has yellow numbers on each side. These yellow numbers run from 1 to 15, but you will notice that the number 13 is skipped. The chance to have nine winning shoes is 2.07%. As mentioned above, there is a 7.63% probability to hit 8 winning shoes. The chance to get 7 winning shoes is 16.65%, while the chance to have 6 winning shoes is 23.84%. You are likely to have 5 winning shoes or 4 winning shoes. Baccarat has long been the go-to option for elevated barware and timeless decor. Founded in 1764 as a glass and mirror-making factory, Baccarat has evolved into a time-honored heritage brand that develops the most elevatedluxury goods imaginable.

drjohnny

THE ONE-SIDED BACCARAT STRATEGY. On the face of it taking one side (Banker or Player) may.

For the past month I've been testing a 7 step Martingale system over 100 hand-dealt shoes.
The Wizard states all betting systems are worthless (including Martingale), but it seems like this one works pretty well in the short run.
To my amazement, I managed to win 3471 units of profit over the 100 shoes and I got hit with only one unlucky streak of 7 straight losses in shoe #53. By shoe #57, I was able to completely recoup all losses from that streak.
For all the math people here, what is the probability of reproducing similar results in the casino if my bankroll is large enough for 8 separate sessions (1024 units)?
What is the probability of doubling my bankroll to 2048 units before going broke?
Assume I play EZ baccarat with no banker commission and bet on both banker and player. If I lose 7 hands in a row, I restart my system and bet 1 unit.
Mission146
Thanks for this post from:

For the past month I've been testing a 7 step Martingale system over 100 hand-dealt shoes.
The Wizard states all betting systems are worthless (including Martingale), but it seems like this one works pretty well in the short run.
To my amazement, I managed to win 3471 units of profit over the 100 shoes and I got hit with only one unlucky streak of 7 straight losses in shoe #53. By shoe #57, I was able to completely recoup all losses from that streak.
For all the math people here, what is the probability of reproducing similar results in the casino if my bankroll is large enough for 8 separate sessions (1024 units)?
What is the probability of doubling my bankroll to 2048 units before going broke?
Assume I play EZ baccarat with no banker commission and bet on both banker and player. If I lose 7 hands in a row, I restart my system and bet 1 unit.


1.) The Martingale can, not does work well in the short run. The Martingale is a sytem based on probabilities rather than odds, you're essentially risking $635 to win $5 on a 99%+ probability. The necessary result of this is that the Martingale will rarely fail, but when it does, it will be catastrophic.
The thing about a 99%+ probability is that (and for the sake of simplicity, we'll assume 99%, that and I don'y know the loss rate of Baccarat off the top of my head) 99 wins at $5 bet is $495 and you should be expected to lose once for every 99 wins. If you win $5 99 times and lose $635 once per, you're down. The math on that really is that simple.
2.) 100 shoes is a small sample size. It seems like a lot, because it takes time to play those, but that is a small sample size.
3.) You did perform better than expected, but that should come as no surprise. If nobody ever performed better than expected (the expectation being a loss) then there would be no casinos because nobody would go.
I will answer the other few questions more specifically at a later time unless someone beats me to it.
Vultures can't be choosers.
drjohnny

The thing about a 99%+ probability is that (and for the sake of simplicity, we'll assume 99%, that and I don'y know the loss rate of Baccarat off the top of my head) 99 wins at $5 bet is $495 and you should be expected to lose once for every 99 wins. If you win $5 99 times and lose $635 once per, you're down. The math on that really is that simple.


I'm pretty sure the probability of losing 7 EZ baccarat hands is roughly 1/128 if you bet on banker and player and ignore ties.
If I win a unit 127 times and then get hit by a losing streak, I'll be even.
In the 100 shoes I tested, I was up 1901 units in shoe #53 before a losing streak hit!
SOOPOO

but it seems like this one works pretty well in the short run.


Incorrect tense. This one 'worked' pretty well in the short run. Someone else can do the math, but your odds of doubling your bankroll before going broke is less than 50%. Excatly how low will be up to the more well versed at math, but I'll guess 25%. For whatever its worth, are baccarat minimums and maximiums that far apart that you can even bet 1024 units on one hand?
dwheatley
These questions do not deserve careful analysis, so I will just use some quick math to estimate some answers.
For simplicity, assume the probability of losing 7 in a row is 1 in 128. (It's actually more likely).
It doesn't work exactly like this, but if you assume each hand has an equal an independent chance of starting a 7-hand losing streak, then each hand you have a 1/128 chance of losing those 127 units. The probability of not losing is 127/128, and the probability of not hitting a streak in n hands is (127/128)^n. I'll repeat that this math is a gross oversimplification, but will give an ok estimate.
With around 80 hands in a 8-deck baccarat shoe, you claim you went 53 shoes before hitting a losing streak. This is n = 4240, with an estimated probability of 1 in 277 trillion. Your odds of doing that again (if ever) are astronomical.
On average, you should hit one of these losing streaks every 1.5 shoes. Your martingale system will not work in a casino environment for long.
Remember: the second worst thing that can happen to a new gambler is losing.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
drjohnny

With around 80 hands in a 8-deck baccarat shoe, you claim you went 53 shoes before hitting a losing streak. This is n = 4240, with an estimated probability of 1 in 277 trillion. Your odds of doing that again (if ever) are astronomical.
On average, you should hit one of these losing streaks every 1.5 shoes. Your martingale system will not work in a casino environment for long.


Shouldn't n = 1901 since that is how many times the system worked before the losing streak hit?
How did you come up with 1 in 277 trillion?
Also, shouldn't I theoretically hit a losing streak every 4 shoes since on average I'm implementing my system 34 times per shoe?
By the way, I've played hundreds of shoes in the casino over the past decade and I've lost 7 in a row only once or twice the entire time.
drjohnny

For whatever its worth, are baccarat minimums and maximiums that far apart that you can even bet 1024 units on one hand?


There's a casino near me that has a $25 min and $100,000 max bet.
Also, if I lose my 7th bet (64 units), I restart with 1 unit since I should be able to recoup my losses within the next 4 shoes.
dwheatley
Here's a random calculator I found, I cannot vouch for its accuracy, but it seems reasonable.
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/
Input a series length of 80 (1 shoe), a streak length of 7, and a prob of loss of 51% to see the chance of hitting a 7 loss martingale in 1 shoe is over 28%. Stretch to 160 to see a probability of over 50%.
By 20 shoes, or 1600 hands, the probability of seeing a losing streak is over 99.9%
It is inconceivable that you could play 50 shoes (n = 4000) and not see a streak of 7.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
7craps

Here's a random calculator I found, I cannot vouch for its accuracy, but it seems reasonable.
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/
Input a series length of 80 (1 shoe), a streak length of 7, and a prob of loss of 51% to see the chance of hitting a 7 loss martingale in 1 shoe is over 28%. Stretch to 160 to see a probability of over 50%.
By 20 shoes, or 1600 hands, the probability of seeing a losing streak is over 99.9%
It is inconceivable that you could play 50 shoes (n = 4000) and not see a streak of 7.

100000 baccarat shoes onlineThat calculator, It is not that accurate.
This one is.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html
BruceZ at 2+2 repaired the JavaScript
That page has good links to do the math
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/4855-ask-the-wizard-correction/
The OP claims to have a better bet selection method than other Bac players.
Always possible to choose more winners than the averages show in a finite number of trials.
It is possible for him to win overall but not for 1 million others that want to play his method.
IMO, very poor instructions on how he plays his method BTW.. in other words
one can not have a computer play 1 billion shoes with his betting instructions. Way to vague.
Even a few blind gorillas can pick winning sports bets at a 60% rate.
Way better than most human cappers.
I am sure one could do the same at playing Baccarat (not equating that the OP is a blind gorilla)
They are still in the large minority.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
drjohnny

It is inconceivable that you could play 50 shoes (n = 4000) and not see a streak of 7.


One of the keys to my system is that I bet with streaks and chops, never against them.
I encountered a banker streak of 9 in the very first shoe.
In the 4th shoe I encountered a banker streak of 13 and in the 74th & 80th shoes I encountered banker streaks of 12.
I've seen 2 separate streaks in the casino that exceeded 20 and after many years of getting wiped out by betting against them, I finally realized it's much wiser to bet with them.
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According to a popular belief, one should give up playing when they are still ahead and that's probably the most widespread approach towards casino games. However, experienced players would not approve of that statement. On the contrary, they would recommend that you continue playing and put your maths skills into practice in order to ensure consistent winnings and great profits.

Let's presume you have won eight out of ten shoes you have played. In other words, you have 5.5 winning shoes for every ten rounds you play, which therefore means you are 2.5 ahead.

Actually, that's a pretty decent number because there is only a 7.63% chance to win exactly eight shoes out of ten.

If you play 10 shoes and you expect to win 55% of the time, you can draw the following conclusions.

You can expect to have ten winning shoes in 0.25% of all occasions. The chance to have nine winning shoes is 2.07%. As mentioned above, there is a 7.63% probability to hit 8 winning shoes. The chance to get 7 winning shoes is 16.65%, while the chance to have 6 winning shoes is 23.84%. You are likely to have 5 winning shoes or 4 winning shoes in 23.4% and 15.96% of the time, respectively. The probability to have 3 winning shoes is 7.46%. you are likely to get 2 winning shoes in 2.29% of the time; 1 winning shoes in 0.42% of all cases and 0 winning shoes in 0.3%.

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As you can see, the sum of the aforementioned percentages equals 100.

In order to determine how often you should expect eight winning shoes out of ten played, you have to add the percentage from ten down to eight. In this case, this makes 9.95%. You can expect at least seven out of ten winning shoes in 16.65%. Therefore, you can expect more than 7 winners in 26.6% of the rounds.

In point of fact, every experienced, professional player would confirm that at one point, everyone can be a winner. Sometimes, it feels like every bet you make is a winning one, but at the same time, every professional player knows what may be the outcome if you stay for too long.

Baccarat Historical Overview
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Baccarat Shoes

100000 Baccarat Shoes Online

When it comes to the chance of getting all non-winning shoes, provided that you play between one and ten shoes, it is equal to 45% in 1 shoe. It decreases to 20.25%, 9.11%, and 4.11% in 2, 3, and 4 shoes, respectively. In 5 shoes it is equal to 1.85%; it is 0.83% in 6 shoes. The percentage for 7, 8, 9 and 10 shoes is 0.37%, 0.17% , 0.08% and 0.03%, respectively.

Keep or Pass the Shoe

If you are a fan of American-style Baccarat, you will see that when betting is over, the shoe is passed to the player who is supposed to take the role of the bank next. The player removes one card from the shoe and slides it to the caller. The caller places the removed card in front of him. The player is not allowed to look at the card and it will be kept face down.

Then, the player removes yet another card from the shoe and places it under the front corner of the shoe. The same is done with two more cards. This way, the initial draw of four cards for the player and the bank is completed.

If you move the plastic shoe out the cushioned rail, the dealer will remind you to push it back. You are not allowed to touch the cards left in the shoe until the dealer gives permission to remove one.

If someone, who is not quite familiar with the rules, removes a fifth card, that card will be covered with a plastic plunger and removed from the play. Such a mistake is usually frowned upon by the other players because that card needs to be burned. The worst of all is that its value is not revealed.

So, at first glance, it seems strange that players get so angry when a single card is burned but there is a pretty good explanation for that.

If a card is removed from the shoe in the middle of the play, the betting systems they use will no longer be effective as the card removal is in contradiction to the requirement for an orderly sequence of events. Players who use a betting strategy are not likely to place a wager until the next shoe.

When the four cards are selected, the caller takes the two player's cards and flips them to the bettor who has placed the biggest bet on the Player side.

The bettor has the right to take a look at the cards, reveal the total, and give the cards back to the dealer. The latter takes the cards and turns them face up. Then, the value of the hand is announced at a loud voice and the winner is determined.

In case the bank is the winning side, the shoe remains with the same player. However, if the player is the winner, the shoe should go to the player who occupies the next seat. The shoe will be offered to the player whose turn it is and he has to choose whether to keep the shoe and draw cards or pass it and allow the next player to draw. The shoe is transferred from one player to another, making rounds from seat number 1 to seat number 12.

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